Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
